Ugo Bardi, a chemist, writes about resource depletion, energy, and the 'Seneca effect', where societal decline is faster than growth.
HN commenters cite it for the Seneca Cliff idea and for posts on Roman decline and EROI. One commenter dismisses the rare earth post as bullshit.
"The simplest: No exhaustible has been depleted yet"
You are correct. In fact, they never will be depleted. Same with the oil. Most of the oil that is still in the ground will stay there.
"These forecasts are made possible by assuming the limit on the amount of oil extracted is the amount of oil in the ground. In fact, the limit is likely to be a financial (debt) limit that comes much sooner."
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/01/13/why-eia-iea-and-randers-2052-energy-forecasts-are-wrong/
Please also see:
Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the Planet
https://www.amazon.com/Extracted-Mineral-Wealth-Plundering-Planet/dp/1603585419
It is well possible we are beyond the peak already. This brings us to the "Seneca effect"
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html
Otherwise: Business as usual.
Gaël Giraud, chief economist of the national French agency for development, says that the only economic simulation that reliably tracked actual data for nearly 50 years is World3. He often says that usually, building a model predicting 18 months in the future is a sure way to get the Nobel, but this one is in a class of its own.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3
Here are some scientists' papers and opinions:
https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/is-global-collapse-imminent
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/09/discovering-limits-to-growth/
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/09/cassandra-and-limits-to-growth.html
> I guess it depends on your definition of "quickly", or it would be good to see a citation on this one.
A citation in your favor would be how net energy output only slowly declines as EROI plummets[1]. Slow decline is a general property of these types ”Seneca Cliffs”[2] present in collapse.
[1] https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-03-12/the-real-energy-return-of-crude-oil-smaller-than-you-would-have-imagined/
[2] https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html
The term you're looking for is "Seneca Cliff", after the Roman Stoic philosopher, statesman, and dramatist.
It's the observation that large and complex systems tend to fail suddenly and catastrophically.
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2014/12/fossil-fuels-are-we-on-edge-of-seneca.html
We see this in business as well: the falls of MCI-Worldcom, Enron, and the collapses of multiple financial bubbles follow this dynamic.
It was part of the downfall of the Roman Empire
1. Not enough mines to mine silver, exhausted based on their technology
2. China sold silk and other stuff and accumulating silver
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2014/03/peak-civilization-how-roman-empire.html
Somewhat fascinatinagly, being renewable doesn't actually change the dynamics :
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/05/peak-oil-thermodynamics-and-stoic.html?m=1
(With the exception that whales, if left alone, might eventually bounce back.)