Arctic News

> The UN claims that above 1.5 degrees there are multiple tipping points that get triggered.

No, that's factually untrue. Go read the IPCC report which is the official communication of the UN on global warming. Absolutely nothing in it implies that 1.5°C is a tipping point.

There is definitely effects with cliff like behaviour (permarfrost melting) but there is nothing magical about 1.5°C.

> Look at the graphs Mann presents in the Hossenfelder video and you'll note that temperature increase isn't continuous, it's more like a step function with long plateaus, with the steps aligning with factors like El Niño.

That's not what continuous means here. It's to be understood as opposite to step-wise. Increase has efffect which varies with the amount in a mostly continuous manner. That's why thresholds are necessary arbitrary.

There is no plateau, it's oscillation with a trend because seasons. [0] Anyway, no one is saying that temperature increase linearily. That's why we always talk about average increase. That's implied when people talk about degree above a baseline. If you don't realise that, you will have hard time following a discussion about the climate.

[0] https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/paris-agreement-thresholds-crossed.html

> Why fret about any deadline ever again once you discover one of them was fake?

Nobody is fretting about deadlines. You are widely misunderstanding the issue if you think the discussion is about when. It's akin to asking when should…

The author's assertion that this is not anthropogenic is laughably ridiculous. Robert Scribbler writes (https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/07/02/strong-westerlies-push-el-nino-toward-extreme-event/) that since the last El Niño of similar magnitudes atmospheric CO2 has increased by 45ppm. Global ocean temperatures are much higher and it is definitely causing shifts in air currents all over the world. The Pacific Northwest is just one area out of many that is experiencing considerably higher temperatures.

The fact that we're having two mega El Niño events in the past 17 years is indicative, amongst hundreds of other observations, that the climate is changing at a speed we should be terrified of. The number of global temperature anomalies going is pretty staggering.

Sam McNamara has written (http://arctic-news.blogspot.nl/2015/07/east-siberian-heat-wave.html) about 20+ degree anomalies in the Arctic. This is the part where we're playing with the possibility of destabilizing underwater methane clathrate reserves. If that happens, we can just call of all climate change prevention efforts, because that's extinction-event level shit.

Yeah it's alarmist, but I believe exponential growth in climate change could occur very soon due to feedbacks. Here's the reasoning:

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/02/dire-situation-gets-even-more-dire.html

Only thing I disagree with on that blog is that the feedbacks will happen over a longer timeline. But 2026 is the tipping point year where climate change starts accelerating so fast it won't be able to be stopped. Then over the next 5-10 years things like "Clouds Tipping Point" (https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html) will be reached. So 2026 is the beginning of the end of human civilization IMO. Of course some people may live underground, in the ocean or other places, but billions of people will die within 10 years following the 2026 tipping point. Billions is the low estimate, more like 99.999999% of humans.

This is from a preofessor in the Netherlands, 2016
He's giving lots of strategies, other than "Olivine all the things":
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/07/olivine-weathering-to-capture-co2-and-counter-climate-change.html

This is a whitepaper from that professor 2017:
https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=73520

His own summarized blogpost, where he is representing the "Olivine Foundation": https://smartstones.nl/the-rate-of-olivine-weathering-an-expensive-myth/

So I'm thinking this is probably a good foundation to start from.
How long before someone can convince the US, much less China to olivine their fields?

This is not a fake problem. It's a series of problems. I have edited a previous post in the thread to concede the technical effectiveness of this solution.